What shapes Russian strategy?
From the conflict in Syria to the crisis in Ukraine, Russia continues to dominate the headlines and challenge the West. Yet the political realities of contemporary Russia are poorly understood by Western observers and policy-makers.
Key current topics
Strategic Foresight: What happens next?
What does Russian thinking about the future look like - and how does the Russian leadership do "foresight"? What are Russian scenarios - and what might be game changers for Moscow? How can we anticipate high impact, but low probability "Black Swans" and high impact high probability "Grey Rhinos"? The answers to these questions are the first step in interpreting why the Russian leadership acts as it does and towards preparing your organisation for what happens next.
"What does the future look like to the Russian leadership - and what might be game changers for Russian strategy?"
Shaping Strategy
Russia’s actions are rational and strategic, rather than purely short term and opportunistic, and illuminate Moscow’s longer-term ambitions. As such, they pose a fundamental problem for democratic nations. This is as true on land and sea as in the new spheres of the 21st century economy and cyberspace.
Strategy is all about the creation of power. With Russia increasingly assertive on the world stage, seeking to re-mould the international architecture, it becomes ever more important to be able to interpret Moscow's strategic agenda and the policy-making landscape that seeks to shape and implement that agenda. Who is who and why? What are Moscow's strategic priorities and what are the problems they face? What does this strategy mean for connecting Russian activity in different regions across the world, and how does the Russian
A nuanced and holistic analysis of Russian strategy making is essential for anticipating and preparing effectively for coping with the global power competition, whether in terms of deterrence and defence, diplomacy or economics, finance and trade.
Articles
Strategic Foresight and the War in Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine shows the essential value of looking ahead to medium- and long-term strategic trends.
In foresight terms, the war in Ukraine is known as a ‘grey rhino’ – a high-probability, high-impact development that took shape over a long period but was largely ignored. Even so, the war has come as a shock, and thrown much prior consensus about international affairs to the wind as officials and observers alike point to the start of a new era. However, there is a danger that imaginative, long-term strategic thinking is forgotten in the face of such a pressing problem. But when a crisis of these proportions emerges, we must make strategy that also looks at the bigger picture.
Russia’s quest for polar power
The Arctic is the country’s number one regional resource; the West’s strategic planners must be ready for the challenge.
Kennan Cable No. 83: Moscow’s Maritime Strategy: Establishing Russia as a Leading Seafaring State
Russia is becoming a maritime nation. As Moscow has sought to position Russia as a global power in a “post-West” world,[1] it has worked to develop the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and increase trade with states across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), in the Gulf, the Indian Ocean, and in the Pacific.
How Russia does foresight
Thinking about the long-term future is a prominent feature of the Russian official strategic planning and public policy debate.
Books
The new politics of Russia
In this lucid and important book, Andrew Monaghan argues that the West’s capacity to understand Russia has been gravely run down. When Russia started reasserting itself in uncomfortable ways, we seized on Putin’s personal role as an over-simple explanation. Our response has inevitably been overexcited and muddled
Sir Rodric Braithwaite, British Ambassador to the USSR/Russia
1988-92
Dealing with the Russians
Refreshingly concise. Andrew Monaghan takes a wider approach, analysing Russia’s strengths and weaknesses, its self-image, its perceptions and misperceptions of us, ditto ours of it.’
The Spectator
Russian Grand Strategy in the era of global power competition
In Russian Grand Strategy in the Era of Global Power Competition, editor Andrew Monaghan brings together contributors to explore the military, political and economic features of Russian foreign policy. This book will be a useful starting point for researchers, policymakers, students of history and politics and all those looking to understand Russia's long-term goals and sense of its place in the evolving world order.
LSE Review of Books
The Sea in Russian Strategy
'Monaghan and Connolly's edited volume is a foundational first step to understanding the history and future of Russian naval and maritime strategy.'
International Affairs
Power in modern Russia
This book cuts through hysteria and conventional wisdom, and is essential reading for those seeking to understand the challenges of dealing with Russia.
Richard Connolly, Co-Director, Centre for Russian, European and Eurasian Studies, University of Birmingham
Videos and Podcasts
Episode 1: Understanding the Origins of Russian Grand Strategy
Launching RUSI Journal Radio’s second season, hosts Demi, Emma and Ed discuss Russian grand strategy and its evolution over time with Andrew Monaghan, a Russian Studies expert.
Against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this episode reflects on the principles that underpin contemporary Russian strategy, Vladimir Putin’s political ascendancy, and the dangers of relying on historical analogies.
Andrew is Founding Director of the Russia Research Network, a Non-Resident Associate Fellow of the NATO Defense College, a Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, and a George F Kennan Fellow at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute.
Book Talk | Russian Grand Strategy in the Era of Global Power Competition
Is the Russian leadership acting strategically or opportunistically?
Watch event recording
Wilson Smart Take: Putin’s Strategy to Position Russia as a Global Player
Andrew Monaghan, a George F. Kennan Fellow at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, talks about Russia’s military strategy over the last decades.
Recording: War in Ukraine: Understanding Russia’s Military Strategy
As fighting continues, the discussion looks at what lessons the war can teach us about Russia’s broader military strategy.
Archive
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Strategy, war and maritime
Russian State Mobilization: Moving the Country on to a War Footing
Kennan Cable No. 83: Moscow's Maritime Strategy: Establishing Russia as a Leading Seafaring
Kennan Cable No. 75: Victory, Defeat, and Russian Ways in War
Seeing the big picture - how Russia's past guides its grand strategy
Putin sees himself as engaged in an existential war with the West
What is Russia doing in Africa?
Will Moscow Refresh its Military Strategy?
Kremlinology and the Great Power Competition
Defibrillating the Vertikal? Putin and Russian Grand Strategy
Putin's Russia: shaping a 'grand strategy'?
How Moscow understands war and military strategy
Russia's quest for polar power
How Russia has upgraded its military strategy by drawing deep on history
Futures/foresight
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